Here at TQ we've got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the second day (Thurs) of the York Dante Meeting, with Dante Stakes, a respected Epsom Derby Trial, the feature contest today.
York Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV4)
1.40 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4
12/12 – Had raced at York before
11/12 – Failed to win last time out
11/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/12 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Came from a single-figure draw
9/12 – Returned a double-figure price
9/12 – Winning distance 3/4 length or shorter
10/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/12 – Aged 6 or older
7/12 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
6/12 – Favourites placed
5/12 – Rated between 87-92
5/12 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
2/12 – Trained by Michael Easterby
0/12 – Winning favourites
El Astronaute won the race in 2018
Duke Of Firenze won the race in 2016 and 2017
2019 Winner: Copper Knight (8/1)
TQ VERDICT: Another tough and competitive renewal but the 2019 winner – COPPER KNIGHT (e/w) – looks a solid choice to go well in the race again. This 7 year-old landed this prize in 2019 and seems to be running into form again after a solid third at Chester last week. He’s in off the same mark here but is rated a massive 15lbs lower than in 2019. Yes, he’s not getting any younger at 7, but having been rated as high as 106 just a few seasons ago, then he could be dangerous to rule out off just 85. Count D’Orsay, Jawwaal and Autumn Flight are others to respect but with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from a single-figure draw then this trip, who are all drawn high, have this to overcome. Those drawn low (single-figures) are Rayong, Queen’s Order, Venturous, Mulzim, Indian Sounds, Illusionist, Huraiz, Musicika and Copper Knight. Of that bunch the other two that catch the eye are MUSICKA (e/w) and RAYONG (e/w). The former often runs well here at York, while the drop back to 5f (from 6f) looks a good move with this being his better trip. Any rain would also be fine. Rayong blew away the cobwebs with a fair return run at Wolverhampton at the end of March, but the return to the grass will help. He’s back down to his last winning mark so has been given a chance by the handicapper, while both career wins to date have been over this 5f trip.
2.10 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4
16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Won over 1m2f before
13/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Having first run of the season
9/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/16 – Winning favourites (including 7 of last 12)
9/16 – Had raced at York before
5/16 – Winners from stall 4
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Had won at York before
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (inc last 2)
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
1/16 – Irish trained winners
1/16 – French trained winners
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
2019 Winner: Lah Ti Dar (1/3 fav)
TQ VERDICT: The Stoute team have won this race a few times since 2008 and will be trying to add to those successes with Queen Power, who we last saw running a close second at Newmarket earlier this month. She’ll be a lot fitter for that first run back and can go close – my only concern is that she’s often placed but hard to win with these days and is now 7 races without a victory. Silence Please is an interesting Irish runner from the Jessie Harrington yard, but this race can go to another runner from across the Emerald Isle – PASSION. This Aidan O’Brien-trained 4 year-old is the top-rated in the field (111) and sets the standard with some solid G1 runs last season. This drop back into a Group Two will make life easier and connections clearly feel this drop back to 1m2f will suit. We know she stays further too, so Ryan Moore, who has won this race twice before, is sure to make full use of that stamina too. Of the rest, Cabaletta, Chamade and Freyja make up the six runners and are all useful performers on their day, but do have a small bit to find on the ratings with the selection.
2.40 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m RTV
15/15 – Rated between 96-105
14/15 – Carried 8-7 or more in weight
14/15 – Had won over a mile before
13/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
12/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
10/15 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
7/15 – Placed last time out
7/15 – Aged 4 years-old
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/15 – Won last time out
2019 Winner: What’s The Story
TQ VERDICT: With 15 of the last 17 winners carrying 8-7 or more in weight, then this is a negative for Gloves Lynch and La Trinidad. In fact, ALL of the last 15 winners were rated between 96 and 105, so if that trend is to be repeated then Artistic Rifles, Ouzo, Volatile Analyst, King Ottokar, Shelir, Kynren, Matthew Flinders, Brunch and Johan are the ones to focus on. 10 of the last 15 winners hailed from a single-figure draw too, so of those 9 runners – Johan, Brunch, King Ottokar and Artistic Rifles tick the box. KING OTTOKAR (e/w) has been a frustrating horse, as he’s clearly talented but hasn’t progressed as connections thought. Any rain would help his cause and he’s down another 2lbs here and will be a lot fitter for his return run in the Lincoln at the end of March. The visor is also back on today and off his dropping mark you feel it might not be long before it all clicks again. What’s The Story won this race in 2019 and has to be respected too. He’s improved since taking this, but it’s also worth noting he’s rated 10lbs higher this time and it won’t be easy with 9-10 in weight to carry. Johan can go well for the William Haggas yard and the hat-trick seeking Artistic Rifles will catch the eye of punters with a couple of wins next to his name. But the other pick is the Michael Dods runner – BRUNCH (e/w). This 4 year-old is one of the proven CD winners in the field and returned at the end of March with a solid second at Donny. He’s been kept fresh for this since and is only a pound higher in the ratings. He acts well on any ground, so some rain is not a problem and with only 8 career outings on the grass should have more improvement to come too.
3.10 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4
16/18 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
14/18 – Finished third or better last time out
12/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Had a previous race that season
11/18 – Won their previous race
9/18 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/18 - Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/18 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 4)
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Had run at York before
0/18 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourites in the last 13 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2020 Winner: Thunderous (13/2)
TQ VERDICT: One of the better Derby Trials out there these days, with Golden Horn the last horse in 2015 to take this and then the Epsom Derby. It looks a decent and competitive renewal too. The John Gosden yard have won three of the last 5 runnings so their entries Megallan and UNCLE BRYN are interesting. The former is fit from a spell on the AW and was a good winner of a Listed race at Newcastle last time out. But it’s interesting that Frankei Dettori has decide to ride Uncle Bryn, who is rated 6lbs lower. This 3 year-old won his first two starts at Kempton and Wolverhampton and then wasn’t disgraced when third at Epsom in their Blue Riband Trial last month. That run also came after the horse was a bit coltish before the race and ran free during it. Yes, the form of that race has taken a knock since with the winner and second not running great at Chester and Lingfield last week. However, with that outing under his belt there is every chance that keenness will be gone now, and connections clearly feel he might have the more improvement in him, than their other runner – he’s around 33/1 for the Derby. Gear Up is another to respect having won a G1 in France last time out and has now won 3 of his 4 starts for the Mark Johnston yard and is also a CD winner here. Alenquer won the Classic Trial at Sandown last month and is another that’s progressing nicely, while after winning the 2000 Guineas recently, anything the Jim Bolger yard send over has to enter calculations – they run Flying Visit, who was a fair second at Leopardstown last time out, but the niggle would be getting the trip as he seemed to only just last out over 1m2f that last day and breeding suggests it’s tight too. Hurricane Lane is unbeaten and comes from the Godolphin team – he’s around 20/1 for the Derby. But the horse we’ll all be looking at is another unbeaten horse in the Aidan O’Brien-trained HIGH DEFINITION. This 3 year-old is high up in the betting for the Derby around 4/1 and a win here will see that price shorten further. He’s another classic Galileo colt to come off the Ballydoyle conveyer belt, who has won both starts over a mile last season. The step up in trip looks sure to suit having stayed on really well in those opening two races over a mile. The yard has won this race four times in the past and with Ryan Moore riding there is every chance they will be adding to that tally.
3.40 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f
9/9 – Had won over 5f or 6f in the past
8/9 – Won between 1-2 times before
7/9 – Ran no more than 6 times
7/9 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/9 – Rated between 98-103
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Drawn in stall 1-5
6/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Had run at the track before
4/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: With 6 of the last 9 winners coming between stalls 1-5, then this might be deemed good news for FIRST COMPANY, WINTER POWER, NEVER SAY NEVER, ATALIS BAY and DEXTER BELLE. But, despite that draw stat, it’s hard to get away from the Nigel Tinkler runner Acklam Express, who is the top-rated in the field and is also one of just two CD winners in the line-up. He’s certainly the one to beat based on his close third in a G1 in Dubai last time out in March. Plus, he’ll also find this drop into Listed company a lot easier and has plenty of pace to cope with this drop back to 5f. He’s won at the track before too, so all looks in place for him to get back to winning ways. Winter Power can give the pick most to think about having already won at Listed and G3 level, while the unexposed Dexter Belle should be noted in the market for any support. Of the rest, Atalis Bay was a good winner at Nottingham last time out and had Burning Cash back in second that day. But MUKER (e/w) is the only other CD winner in the field, so a cover bet on this Phillip Makin runner is also advised. This 3 year-old rarely runs a bad race, but his chance will increase if there is any more rain having won here over 5f on good-to-soft.
