We've another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks - Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.
The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that's run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.50 – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 - Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
TQ VERDICT: This can go to the exciting KNIGHT SALUTE, who heads here having won all four starts over hurdles. Trained by Milton Harris, but you feel that if he were housed by one of the big yards would be getting even more attention. The last of those wins was a ¾ of a length beating of Porticello, who franked the form last weekend with an easy win at Haydock. A win here and connections might be tempted for the Triumph Hurdle or Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, who he has entries in both. Of the rest, he can fear most from Impulsive One, from the Nicky Henderson yard, who is rated 7lbs inferior to the selection. Also the Paul Nicholls runner - Pleasant Man - could be the fly in the ointment for the selection. A useful 90+ rated flat performer when trained by Roger Charlton (3 wins from 9) and if taking to the sticks could be a nice recruit for the Ditcheat camp. Graystone, Iroko and Moka De Vassy can do best of the rest.
2.25 – Coral Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4
14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
TQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls camp have been a bit in-and-out in recent weeks, but this is a race they love to target - winning the pot seven times in the last eleven years. With that in mind, their PIC D’ORHY is worth siding with despite a heavy defeat at Sandown last time out. That said, he did run into the improving L’Homme Presse that day so the run in a few weeks might not actually look that bad if that horse wins at Cheltenham. Before that though the Nicholls horse had won well at Ascot in a Grade Two and if back in that sort of form would be the one to beat here. Minella Drama is rated 7lbs lower than the pick so needs to find a bit more. Millers Bank is useful, but two recent unseats would be the worry for this one. Goa Lil has a lot to find at the weights, so the danger cane come from FANTASTIC LADY, from the Nicky Henderson yard. This 7 year-old is rated 17lbs lower than Pic D’Orhy but gets a handy 12lbs off the Nicholls horse so doesn’t have much improvement to fine. She’s also won her last two well which suggests there is every chance she will have more to offer.
3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
TQ VERDICT: This race has been won 11 times in the last 15 years by the Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards. No runner for Alan King this year though, but Henderson has Russian Ruler, while Nicholls saddles Iceo. Both are have to be respected with the good stable records in the race, but they might have to play second fiddle to the Gary Moore runner - SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE. This 5 year-old improved on his Tolworth Hurdle fourth in January to bolt-up at Sandown earlier this month and a repeat of that run would see him hard to beat. He’s also a course winner here at Kempton when taking a NH Flat race back in March 21. Of the rest, Frere D’Armes and Moriko De Vassy are feared, but the danger can come from AUCUNRISQUE, who represents the Chris Gordon team. This 6 year-old has won his last two by 7 and 10 lengths and with just three runs over the sticks will have more to come.
3.37 – Coral Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4
16/19 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
16/19 – Aged 9 or younger
16/19 – Rated 139 or higher
14/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/19 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/19 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/19 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/19 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Aged 8 years-old
5/19 – French bred
4/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/19 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/19 – Trained by Tom George
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 5)
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 5)
2/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/19 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 19 winners aged 9 or younger this is not good news for the 10 year-old Lalor. We’ve also seen the same about of winners in the last 19 runnings placed in the top five in their last race - so this would be a plus for most of the runners barring Zanza, Enrilo, Lalor and Kitty’s Light. 13 of the last 19 winners also carried 10st 13lbs or more, so this might be seen as a negative for Our Power, Five Star Getaway, Galahad Quest, Zhiguli, Beakstown and Cap Du Nord. So, taking those trends into account that leaves us with four of the top seven on the card - Good Boy Bobby, The Big Breakaway, Phoenix Way and Annsam. Of that quartet, the two I like are ANNSAM and THE BIG BREAKAWAY. The first-named beat Phoenix Way by 4 1/24 lengths at Ascot last time out and a 6lb rise for that looks fair. Yes, there is small swing in the racing weights this time, but it’s only 3lbs. I also feel that Annsam, who has only had 5 career runs, will have more improvement to come, especially over this 3m trip. The Big Breakaway represents the Colin Tizzard yard that have won this race twice in the last five years. He’s not really kicked on as many thought, but from seven runs over fences has only been out of the top three twice. Just the one win but three runs back he was in the process of running well behind Bravemansgame at Newbury when falling late on. Yes, he would have probably finished second that day, but with the winner franking the form many times since it was still a top run. He’s since had a wind op and returned from that last time to run a close third. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time here, which is another reason to suggest he could find a bit more from somewhere.
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
3.15 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV4
17/17 – Had won over at least 3m before
15/17 – Aged 10 or younger
14/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
14/17 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/17 – Irish-bred
11/17 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/17 – Officially rated between 131-140
11/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/17 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1
TQ VERDICT: Stamina will be the order of the day here, over this 4m1f trip, while with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 10 or younger this would be a negative for the older horses in the race - Achille, Potters Corner, Lake View Lad and Gwencily Berbos. 14 of the last 17 winners also carried 10st 13lbs or more, which is most fit the bill - but it still allows us to put a potential negative line through Gwencily Berbos, History Of Fashion, Court Master, Just Your Type, Cash To Ash, Danilo D’Airy and Strong Economy. It’s been the 8 and 9 year-olds that have the best record in the race recently - winning 11 of the last 17. Irish raider, History Of Fashion has been popular in the betting all week and could easily go off favourite after a nice 8 length win at Down Royal last time, but is up 11lbs for that. Domaine De L’Isle, Danilo D’Airy and Checkitout are others you can make cases for. Cash To Ash loves to finish second - he’s picked up four silver medals in the last four runs! But that tells us he’s a consistent sort and is also versatile in terms of trip - having won over 3m and also ran a close second in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December. With just 10st 7lbs he can go well too. But the two we’ll be siding with here are ÉCLAIR SURF and RATH AN LUIR (e/w). The former bolted up in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out and seemed to love the step up to 3m 5f that day. Yes, he’s got another 4 furlongs to go here and is up 10lbs in the ratings for that, but has had a nice break (42 days) to get over that day and run another solid race. Rath An Luir would have needed the run last time at Ayr as that came off a 399-day break. Prior to that at the end of 2020 he won twice at Carlisle and is back here just 2lbs higher than the last of those wins. He’s a course winner too that will love the soft ground and despite his age (9) is very lightly-raced with only seven career runs.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.30 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4
12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
8/14 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/14 – US bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Lord Riddiford won the race in 2021
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
TQ VERDICT: One Night Stand will make a bold bid back at his beloved Lingfield - a track he’s won twice at before - with Hollie Doyle a good jockey booking for the Scott Dixon stable. But he’s rated around 7lbs and 9lbs inferior to the main players here - Exalted Angel, Lord Riddiford, Mondammej and Tone The Barone. Of that bunch Lord Riddiford, who won this race 12 months ago, and Tone The Barone are proven CD winners and should not be far away, while Mondammej is respected too but it’s worth noting he’s never races here at Lingfield before - 10 of the last 14 winners had! So, the pick is the Karl Burke runner EXALTED ANGEL, who will be better for a recent run here at Lingfield after a small break. Yes, he was behind Mondammej at Wolves back in November but was having to give that horse 8lbs that day and was only beaten 1 ½ lengths. Off level weights here today things should be different. Draw 3 is also a plus and he’s a proven course winner.
2.05 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
17/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
16/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
15/19 – Had run at Lingfield previously
15/19 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
15/19 – Had raced at either Lingfield (11) or Kempton (4) last time out
13/19 – Winning distance – less than a length
13/19 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the market
13/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/19 – Placed in their last race
12/19 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/19 – Won their last race
9/19 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 3 runnings)
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden (last 3 runnings)
2/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 7)
Just 2 of the last 15 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 19 renewals is 11/2
TQ VERDICT: A race the John Gosden yard have won for the last three years, including 12 months ago with Forest Of Dean, who is back for more. However, they also run the 123-rated LORD NORTH and being that he’s rated 16lbs higher than his stablemate then he’s the class act in here and will take the beating. Not been out since winning a Group One in Meydan, but has gone well fresh in the past and dropping into a Group Three will make things easier on this return anyway. Fancy Man, Al Zaragaan and King Of The South are all horses with place claims, but the clear second pick is the 115-rated Alenquer. Top marks to the Haggas yard for taking on Gosden here with this former Group Two winner. He was last seen running 9th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last October and before that was second in the Group One Juddmonte International at York. He is a useful middle-distance colt and can make the selection work for this.
