Some nice jumping cards to look forward to this Saturday from Warwick and Kempton, with nine races being shown LIVE on ITV4 across the two tracks.
The clear highlights on the day are the Grade 3 Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (3.00), at Warwick– a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006, and at Kempton the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40) - a prize that the Nicky Henderson yard have landed three times since 2013 - is their showcase event.
As normal, here at TQ we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.
Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.32 – Coral ‘Fail-To-Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4
8/9 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/9 – Had run at the track before (hurdles/chase)
6/9 – Won no more than twice over fences before
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Rated between 134 and 139
5/9 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
4/9 – Ran at Ludlow (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Amy Murphy
Smarty Wild won the race in 2021
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2
The Nicky Henderson-trained FALCO BLITZ found the 3m trip too far last time at TQ VERDICT: Bangor but now back to 2m4f looks interesting. This 8 year-old rounded off last season with some fair runs over this trip and has also been dropped 3lbs since that last run. He’ll also like the softer ground here with his last two wins coming on soft and heavy and Nico De Boinville, who has won on him twice in the past, is back in the plate. Kap Auteuil was a good winner at Fontwell last time, but is up 4lbs for that and this looks a bit harder, while the consistent Champagne Court is the other recent winner in the field and is also up 4lbs for that - he should go well, but I’m not sure the step back up to 2m4f is a plus. Twenty Twenty and Foxboro both have light weights so could be dangerous, but the other pick is FANZIO. This 7 year-old was a close second at Doncaster last time out over 2m but stayed on well that day and might have won had the race been over further. He’s run well over this sort of trip in the past too and should be spot on for this now after two runs this season. CD winner Lock’s Corner makes up the field and on his best form has a chance, but has been very poor in his last six runs and is hard to fancy until we see a return to form on the track.
2.05 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4
8 previous runnings
7/8 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
7/8 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/8 - Aged 8 or older
5/8 – Winning favourites
5/8 – Had won over fences at the track
Master Tommytucker won the race in 2021
Frodon won the race in 2020
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020 and 2021
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here, which is a shame. Nicky Henderson has won it three times since 2016 - and try again this year with Mister Fisher. This horse was last seen pulling up in the King George on Boxing Day so will find this easier and the drop back to 2m4f here will help. He’s the top-rated in the field so commands respect but is another that it’s easy to catch right - winning just one of his last 7. Defi Du Seuil would be a cert on his form of a few seasons ago, but he seems to have lost his way again - something that happened to the horse before, but the good news for his supporters is that he’s still only 9 years-old and has bounced back in the past. Rouge Vif is another with a bit to answer at the moment after a poor forth of 4 on his return run in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November. This is only his second run for Nicholls though and it’s interesting that they are stepping him up in trip here. Eldorado Allen is the most consistent of the four at present and was last seen running a fair third in the Peterborough Chase last month. The concern for me with him though is the trip - with all his better runs coming over shorter. Overall, I expect Mister Fisher to run better now back in trip and he’s the only course winner here, but the Nicholls yard have won the last two runnings of this, so a chance is taken on their ROUGE VIF returning to form now upped in trip. He should be a lot fitter for his return run at Cheltenham in November, but connections have also taken their time with him and clearly feel he’s worth a crack over this 2m4f trip on what will be just his second run back after a wind op too.
2.40 – Coral Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
20/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
16/20 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
14/20 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
14/20 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/20 – Irish (8) or French (6) bred
13/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/20 – Aged 6 years-old
9/20 – Placed favourites
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/20 - Winning favourites
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 9)
3/20 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 34 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle
TQ VERDICT: A super-competitive renewal with many familiar faces in the line-up. It’s a race the Nicky Henderson yard have won three times since 2013 too, so their runners Call Me Lord, Marie’s Rock and Monte Cristo all have to command respect. Of that trio, the Nico de Boinville-ridden MARIE’S ROCK, who won well here at Kempton last time out, gets the nod. She won easily by 7 lengths that last day so despite being 9lbs higher here did it in the style of an improving horse that will have very similar conditions again this time. With 17 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or younger, then I’m happy to rule out the older runners - like William Henry, Call Me Lord, Commanche Red, Dans Le Vent and Ch’tibello. Paul Nicholls is another yard to note, having won this race three times in the last 20 years - he runs Gelino Bello, who hasn’t been disgraced in running second to the useful-looking Blazing Khal at Cheltenham the last twice. Up For Parol can go well too for the in-form Jamie Snowden yard, while it’s been hard to knock the recent wins of Green Book for the Venetia Williams yard. This is harder though, but he’s going the right way and with young Ned Fox taking off a whopping 10lbs from the saddle he’s dangerous. But the other horse I’ve been impressed with this season is EARTH LORD (e/w). This Philip Hobbs runner also comes here off the back off two wins (Wincanton and Ascot) and there could be more to come. He’s up another 6lbs here but has been showing a good turn of foot in his races and also travelling well into them to suggest there is more in the locker.
3.15 – Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4
Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 - Aged 8 or older
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Had run at the track before
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
7/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/9 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
6/9 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
Double Shuffle (4/1) won the race in 2021
Fingerontheswitch (15/2) won the race in 2020
Glen Rocco (11/4) won this race in 2019
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016
TQ VERDICT: Most of these 8 runners have a bit to prove at the moment, but the Philip Hobbs yard have won this this race twice since 2014 and I think their SMARTY WILD can go well. This 8 year-old also won on this card 12 months ago and there was a sign of a return to form last time at Ludlow with a fair third. He’s down another pound for that run and with most of the others having question marks to answer he could be the safest call. Double Shuffle often runs well here and has been a runner-up in the King George at the track in the past. But he’s now 12 years-old and has just one win from his last 23 runs. The winning runs of both Wishing And Hoping and Strictlyadancer came to an end last time, but they’ve both had around 6 weeks to get over those runs and it would be no shock to see them bounce back. But a chance is also taken on the Nicky Henderson runner - CARIBEAN BOY (e/w) - who was an early faller last time out at Ascot. He’s off the same mark here but before that tumble had run a better race to be beaten just over 8 lengths in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham and having been rated 154 only 12 months ago, is looking well-treated off a mark of 145 now.
Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.18 - Alder Demain & Akers PMS Oxford Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m ITV4
10/10 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 - Had won between 0-2 times
9/10 - Aged 9 or younger
9/10 - Favourites placed
8/10 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 - Won between 1-2 times
4/10 - Won last time out
4/10 - Had run at the track before
4/10 - Winning favourites
2/10 - Trained by Venetia Williams
2/10 - Trained by Alex Hales
Sky Pirate (6/4 fav) won the race in 2021
Winning SP 10/3 in the last 10 runnings
TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here but a nice little race. All eyes will be on the improving Brave Seasca, who likes to get on with things from the front and has won his last two well. He’s up a massive 9lbs more though here, but is a proven CD winner and gets into this better race with just 10-6 in racing weight - be could be hard to peg back. However, he faces a much better opponent this time in the shape of SKY PIRATE, who was last seen running Shishkin to 13 lengths at Kempton over Xmas. Yes, it won’t be easy with 11-12 here and having to give a lot of weight away to some improving sorts, but he’s rated a clear 20lbs higher than Brave Seasca and is also a proven CD winner here at the track. Fast Buck, for the Skeltons and the hat-trick seeking Not Available make up the quartet and with both carrying 10-2 can’t be totally ruled out either should the main two run below par.
1.50 – Wigley Group Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4
14/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
14/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/14 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/14 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
10/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
Next Destination (10/11) won the race in 2021
TQ VERDICT: 12 months ago, this race went to the Paul Nicholls yard and they look to have a great chance of that happening again with THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE. This improving staying Novice Chaser has won his last three in impressive fashion, including last time out at Doncaster with an easy 7 length success. The runner-up that day - Fantastikas - didn’t run too badly behind an improving Venetia Williams runner at Cheltenham last time, but I fell there is here a lot more to come from the Nicholls horse here. If lining up, recent winners - Midnight River and Mint Condition are others to respect, while the Sandy Thomson runner - DOYEN BREED - has been running well this season too and can follow home the pick. He’s had a small break since his last run and along with the main pick is the only other proven distance winner in the field.
2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Placed favourites
3/15 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/15 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 7)
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 9)
Adrimel (7/2 fav ) won the race in 2021
TQ VERDICT: Stag Horn was a useful flat performer that made a winning start to his hurdle career at Hereford last month. His proven flat speed will be a plus, but the ground here will be a lot softer than last time and that might blunt that burst. This is also a step up in grade and his jumping wasn’t great the last day to suggest it will come under a lot more pressure here. Howdyalikemenow was a nice winner at Ffos Las last time and has now won three of his last four. He can go well but is up from 2m here to 2m5f so lasting the extra trip in this better race is an unknown. Viva Lavilla ran the useful Lossiemouth to second at Sandown last time out and kept on well to think the longer trip will suit here. Gentleman At Arms was a good winner at Huntingdon last time out (13l) too and has a chance - having jumped well that day. But the two here are SURREY QUEST for Nicky Henderson and SCIPION. The former is the only distance winner in the field and comes here now 2-from-2 over hurdles after wins at Leicester and Doncaster - there could be a fair bit more to come. Then Scipion, who is yet to win a race, ran second to Jetoile last time out but the form of that has been franked since with the winner running second to Constitution Hill in the Tolworth Hurdle last week. He’s run just once over hurdles so would have learned a lot from that last run, plus it also came off a 249-day break.
3.00 – Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/16 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
12/16 – Officially rated between 129-140
12/16 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
11/16 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
10/16 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
9/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/16 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
8/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Alan King
Notachance (7/2 jfav) won the race in 2021
Just two winning favourites in the last 16 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
TQ VERDICT: The Alan King runner - Notachance - took this race 12 months ago and will be hoping to defend his crown here and having not won since has slipped back down to the mark he was 12 months ago (139). The longer trip will help, but he does need to bounce back from four very poor runs since winning this. We’ve also got last year’s runner-up Achille back for more. This Venetia Williams runner was only beaten ½ a length that day but is rated 4lbs higher this time and is no spring chicken at 12 years-old. Paul Nicholls has a fair record in the race too and tries again with the 6 year-old Grace A Vous Enki, but he heads here off the back of a fall at Hereford as an odds-on favourite which is not ideal. Éclair Surf was a fine third in the Welsh National last time out, but was actually 35 lengths back that day. The longer trip will help though as he’s looked a bit one-paced. JP McManus has fair chances with Jerrysback and Chirico Vallis, while Minella Encore was a nice winner last time at Ludlow and is respected despite being 9lbs higher here. With 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 7-9, then this stat looks key and with that in mind the two I like here are CORACH RAMBLER and PADLEYOUROWNCANOE. The former has won his last two for the Lucinda Russell yard and the form of those wins look solid with Sail Away, who he beat two runs back, running well in the week behind the classy Dusart. He’s up 8lbs again here, but looks a progressive staying chaser that could improve again for the step up in trip - the yard also won this in 2017 with their former Grand National winner - One For Arthur. The other pick - Padleyourowncanoe - caught the eye running a close third at Haydock on his return run last month and is in here off the same mark. Harry Skelton teams up with his brother Dan and we with that last run coming off a 452-day absence then we can expect him to have improved a lot for that too.
3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4
16/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
13/16 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
13/16 – Officially rated between 126-142
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Placed favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/16 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/16 – Winning favourites
Imperial Alcazar (5/1) won the race in 2021
Tobefair won this race in 2017
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 8 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
TQ VERDICT: Former Cheltenham Festival winner - Sire Du Berlais - comes over from Ireland and having run second in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last season would be the one to beat on that form. He was last seen, however, pulling up at Leopardstown over Xmas in their Christmas Hurdle so needs to put that run behind him. The fact the Elliott yard are sending him over is a good sign he’s come out of that last race okay though. But I think the other JP McManus runner in the field - SPORTING JOHN - is the one to side with. This 7 year-old gets a handy 7lbs from Sire Du Berlais here and despite being a beaten favourite last time at Cheltenham the form of that race looks okay with the winner running well again since. Third Wind would have a say on his best form - winning the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle last season, but was well back in the Long Walk Hurdle last time at Ascot. Keeper Hill is the only CD winner in the field and was useful a few seasons ago but is now 11 years-old and hasn’t won since Nov 2019. Of light weights Riggs and Alaphilippe could hit the frame, but the other Irish runner in the field - THE JAM MAN (e/w) - is the other to have a small interest in. This trip looks ideal having stayed on well over 3m at Navan last time (4th of 23) and certainly won’t mind the soft ground.
