It's the calm before the storm this coming Saturday with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon. However, still plenty to get stuck into with the ITV cameras to take in four races at Sandown Park that include the competitive Imperial Cup - a race the sponsors (Paddy Power) put up an additional bonus of £50k should the winner go onto land any race at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival - the last horse to do the double was Gaspara in 2007.
We've also two LIVE ITV races on the AW to take in from Wolverhampton, including the Lincoln Handicap Trial - yes, all the racing talk might be about Cheltenham at the moment, but the start of the flat turf season is also not far away!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ we've all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Paddy Power "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV4
18/18 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
17/18 – Carried 10-11 or more
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
14/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/18 – Rated 129 or less
14/18 – Unplaced favourites
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
12/18 – Irish bred
10/18 – Aged 6 years-old
10/18 – Had won over this trip before
6/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/18 – Winning favourites
1/18 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
TQ VERDICT: 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or younger - which is not ideal for Hometown Hero (7). 17 of the last 18 winners also carried 10st 11lbs or more - a plus for the first 11 horses of the 17. The Pipe, Nicholls and Henderson yard have won the race twice each in the last 18 years too - they run Kingofthewest, Complete Unknown, Knappers Hill and Surrey Quest. Thunder Rock has won it’s last three but it up another 6lbs here, while the Stuart Edmonds (50%), Harry Fry (23%) and Colin Tizzard (23%) yards have good records here with their hurdlers - they run Arizona Cardinal, Dubrovnik Harry and Triple Trade. The ones we like here though are JERRASH and SURREY QUEST. The former was a good winner at Fontwell last time and this Gary Moore runner has now won two of his three starts over hurdles. Surrey Quest ran too bad to be true last time at Warwick (PU) but prior to that had won well at Doncaster. The Henderson yard have given him 2 months to get over that (reported to have coughed) and back in trip looks worth giving another chance to.
2.25 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
17/18 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
17/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
15/18 – Rated 124 or higher
14/18 – Aged 6 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-7 or less
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
11/18 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
10/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
9/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/18 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – French bred
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/18 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 5)
1/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/1
TQ VERDICT: 16 of the last 18 winners carried 10st 13lbs or less - so the first six on the card - Miranda, Samarrive, Onemorefortheroad, Surprise Package, Mick Maestro and Balco Coastal fall down here. KIHAVAH , however, was a good winner at Musselburgh last time out in a Novice Hurdle and he looks interesting. He’s back into a handicap here but prior to that last run ran Cormier to 9 lengths at Cheltenham and that horse has since franked the form to win last weekend’s Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. The useful Kevin Brogan has been booked to claim 3lbs too and with only 10st 4lbs in weight could be dangerous off this featherweight. Mr Grey Sky is in good form (2 recent wins) and Up For Parol has won 3 of his 7 hurdles starts for the Jamie Snowden yard to be considered. Balco Coastal only just falls of the weight trend and has some entries at Cheltenham next week, but the other pick is one of the Paul Nicholls runners - HACKER DES PLACES. He won well at Chepstow last time and a 4lbs rise for that looks fair. Jockey Angus Cheleda rides again and can claim a handy 5lbs too. With 10st 13lbs he is bang on the weight stat and represents a yard that won this race in 2019. Of the rest, having won the race 12 months ago, the Skelton runners - Calico and Lucky One - command respect too.
3.00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
17/17 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
16/17 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
15/17 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17– Won last time out
12/17 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
10/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
1/17 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
TQ VERDICT: The bulk of recent winners of this race were aged 5 or 6, so the two 4 year-olds in the race - Eel Pie Island and Luccia - have this to overcome. All eyes will be drawn to the Willie Mullins runner - Eabha Grace - as he’s got a formidable record in these sorts of races. She was, however, well back at Leopardstown last time out - albeit in a hot G2 race. The form pick though is the Milton Harris runner - MULLENBURG - who bolted up in a Listed NH Flat race at Cheltenham last time out. He beat Fairy Gem (runs here too) by 5 ½ lengths that day and despite being 4lbs worse off it’s hard to see that form being reversed. Malina Jamila and Nifty Getaway are others to consider, but even though she was fourth behind Mullenburg (12 ½ l), the Kim Bailey runner - FLIRTATIOUS GIRL (e/w) - can get closer this time in a race she actually won last year. The yard has won this race twice since 2013, including 12 months ago too. It’s a bit strange that connections haven’t sent her hurdling this season, but we know the track suits and should be a lot fitter for that last run.
3.35 – Paddy Power Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4
Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Aged 5 or 6 year-old
4/4 – Top 4 finish last time out
4/4 – French bred
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/4 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
2/4 – Favourites placed
2/4 – Won with 11st 8lbs or more
0/4 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Venetia Williams, Ben Pauling, Nick Williams and Gary Moore are the past winners of this race
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 22% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 6/1
TQ VERDICT: Just the six runners here but a case can be made for them all. Scene Not Herd and the two Paul Nicholls runners - Danny Kirwan and Flic Ou Voyou - would have solid chances on their best form, while Killer Kane was a nice winner at Kempton last time out. However, with just four past runnings of this race the Gary Moore and Venetia Williams yard have won it once each before so their entries - DORKING LAD and FRENCHY DU LARGE - just edge it. The first-named was an easy 20 length winner at Huntingdon last time and despite being up 11lbs for that in clearly in great form and looks progressive. Frenchy Du Large got a bit bogged down in the heavy ground at Lingfield over the longer trip last time, but before that has won well over shorter so the 3 ½ week break and back in distance make him interesting too.
Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
1.31 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Had won over 6f before
9/11 – Drawn 5 or higher
9/11 – Aged between 4 and 7 (inc)
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – Rated between 88-96 (inc)
7/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – Won between 3-6 times before
5/11 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
TQ VERDICT: The in-form Whittle Le Woods will be popular, but this will be harder up in grade and with 9 of the last 11 winners drawn in stalls 5 or higher, his berth (2) might not be ideal. CD winners Astro Jack and Full Authority have cases on their best form here. But the consistent ZARZYNI, who has been runner-up in his last three and was third in this race 12 months ago, and the top-weight EXALTED ANGEL, who also rarely runs a bad race at this level, get the verdicts.
2.05 – MansionBet Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4
17/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Won over a mile (or further) before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/19– Won at least three times before
15/19 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/19 – Came from stall 8 or higher
9/19 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
8/19 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
7/19 – Aged 5 years-old
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/19 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
TQ VERDICT: 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or younger - not good news, therefore, for Bless Him (8) and Scottish Summit (9). Having raced in the last 6 weeks is another positive trend, so again not ideal for Scottish Summit, who last ran 133 days ago. The clear pick here though is the Roger Varian runner - LA TIHATY, who could turn out to be better than a handicapper. He’s won his last four starts, the last at Kempton at the start of February and a 9lb rise for that easy 2 ¼ length win might not be enough to stop him going in again. The Varian camp also boast a cracking 36% strike-rate at the track with their 4 year-olds. Of the rest, United Front, Hafeet Alain, and Baldomero come here in good order. But the danger can come from the recent Lingfield scorer - NOTRE BELLE BETE - who won at the first time of asking for his new yard (Andrew Balding).
2.40 – MansionBet Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4
12/15 – Had won over 7f before
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Rated 104 or higher
11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/15 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
8/15 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
8/15 – Unplaced last time out
7/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/15 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/15 – Winning favourite
2/15 – Trained by Marco Botti
TQ VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard often do well here (won the last two), but no runners for them this year. Top-rated Happy Power can go well, as can the consistent CD winner - Misty Grey - who ran well behind La Tihaty (runs in the previous race). Fauvette, River Nymph, Amilcar and Volatile Analyst have string cases too, but HIGHFIELD PRINCESS and INTERNATIONALANGEL get the verdict: The former gets a handy 5lbs off the boys in the race but being rated 107 herself is no slouch at this level. She was only ¾ of a length off Fauvette last time at Chelmsford and with that coming off a 124-day break should be better for it. Internationalangel will draw the eye of punters too after a string of wins next to her name. She’s up again in class but just keeps improving and looked better than ever last time when scooting away to beat Whittle Le Woods by 2 ¾ lengths at Newcastle.
