2021 Winter Derby Betting Trends - First run in 1998 the Betway-sponsored Winter Derby is staged at Lingfield racecourse and run on their All Weather track. The 1m2f contest in now a Group 3 race after being upgraded from Listed class back in 2006.
In recent years a 4 year-old has won the race 5 times in the last 10 runnings, while it could pay to concentrate on horses aged 6 or younger as this age group has been responsible for 15 of the last 18 winners – trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori have also landed the last two runnings.
Here at TQ we look back at the recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take in the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th February.
Recent Lingfield Winter Derby Winners
2020 - DUBAI WARRIOR (4/9 fav)
2019 – WISSAHICKON (1/4 fav)
2018 - MASTER THE WORLD (16/1)
2017 - CONVEY (11/2)
2016 – GRENDISAR (11/4)
2015 – TRYSTER (3/1 fav)
2014 – ROBIN HOODS BAY (10/1)
2013 – FARRAAJ (6/4 fav)
2012 – PREMIO LOCO (5/1)
2011 – NIDEEB (9/4 fav)
2010 – TRANQUIL TIGER (11/8 fav)
2009 – SCINTILLO (8/1)
2008 – HATTAN (14/1)
2007 – GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (4/1 jfav)
2006 – SRI DIAMOND (8/1)
2005 – ECCENTRIC (7/2)
2004 – CALUKI (14/1)
2003 – PARASOL (5/2 jfav)
Lingfield Winter Derby Betting Trends
16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2
TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners – which is a shame – but actually not a bad little race with most having a chance. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding the Andrew Balding runner Johnny Drama, who is the top-rated in the field. He’s won 4 of his 5 runs on the AW, but was beaten over 1m2f last time here and that would be a worry, with his better AW runs coming over 1m4f – you just wonder if he might get outpaced at a crucial stage. It’s hard to fault Father Of Jazz after two easy wins at Lingfield and Chelmsford, but this is a big step up and might be worth taking on. Felix was a close second in the Winter Derby Trial here last time and with Hollie Doyle riding can go close – he rarely runs a bad race and has now won 4 of his 7 AW outings. However, the John Gosden yard have won the last two runnings of this and their FOREST OF DEAN is the call. This 5 year-old was only just behind Felix (3rd) in the Trial of this race here last time and even though there is not a lot between the pair, he might just have a bit more to come with his last two runs coming off a big 478-day break. Power Of States makes up the five runners and comes here in form after two recent wins at Wolves from his last three outings, but this is a step up in grade.
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