Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests - As always, here at TQ, we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4
17/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
16/17 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – French (11) or Irish (4) bred
14/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (4) last time out
11/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/17 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
TQ VERDICT: Plenty of promising Novice Chasers on show here, with 5 of the seven runners having also won last time out and the other two finishing second! The Paul Nicholls yard have a top record in the race and run Il Ridoto again quickly. This 4 year-old was seen winning well last weekend at Newbury and even though this is a bit hike in class, gets a handy 6lbs off all the others - he can go well. However, the Colin Tizzard runner - War Lord - beat him by just over 10 lengths back in October so you feel he’s got a bit of ground to make up still on that one. The call though is for the Dan Skelton runner - THIRD TIME LUCKI - to remain unbeaten over fences and make it 3-from-3. He’s caught the eye when winning well at Cheltenham the last twice and the runner-up last time - Sebastopol - was all set to frank the form until falling at the last at Kempton recently. He’s also the top-rated in the field and the stiff finish should be right up his street again here. Edwardstone was in the process of being beaten by Do Your Job at Warwick last month, but you feel there won’t be much between the two with EDWARDSTONE having since come out and won well at Warwick - he rates the danger to the main pick. Stolen Silver and Minella Drama have small claims too, but both need to bounce back from defeats last time.
2.25– Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4
18/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
18/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
14/19 – French bred
14/19 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
14/19 – Officially rated 165 or higher
14/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
12/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
10/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (11 wins in total)
6/19 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/19 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 5/2
TQ VERDICT: The powerful Irish yard of Willie Mullins landed this race in 2016 and he’ll be hoping for more with his super-talented Chacun Pour Soi coming over to run at Sandown for the first time. He’s the clear top-rated in the field (176) and despite losing out in a tight finish (3rd) in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, bounced back to winning ways at Punchestown in April. He beat stablemate Allaho that day and had the Skelton-trained Nube Negra well back in third. He’s still lightly-raced (13 runs) for a 9 year-old and having won 7 of his 10 runs over fences then he’s going to be a tough nut to crack. However, those against him might look to the Sandown hill and this being his first run here at the track as negatives, but we know he stays a bit further than this (has won over 2m 1 1/2f), so he should be fine here. For me, the quicker ground might be more of a worry, as unless there is a lot of rain between now and Saturday this is likely to be the quickest ground he’s uncounted - when he lost in the Champion Chase it was good-to-soft ground. This may also play into the hands of NUBE NEGRA, who will be fine if conditions remain as they are and he looked super-impressive when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham last time, beating last year’s winner of this race - Politologue - by 6 lengths. He’s a strong traveller that also finished just ahead of Chacun Pour Soi in the Champion Chase last season, so we know he’s got the beating of the Mullins horse on his best form. At just 7 years-old, there’s also every chance he’s not finished improving over fences and can also be expected to have improved for that last run as it came off a break - he just edges it for me and looks the better value in the betting. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls yard have a top record in this race - winning it 11 times in total and three times since 2014 - he runs both Hitman and Greaneteen. The former returned with a fair second in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last month and at 5 years-old still has a lot of time on his side. But he’s rated 22lbs inferior to Chacun Pour Soi and 14lbs behind Nube Negra, so does have a bit to find. GREANETEEN looks the better of the Nicholls runners. He’s young at 7 too, and clearly needed the return run at Exeter last time out when a well-beaten 4th in the already mentioned Haldon Gold Cup. He won the Celebration Chase here in April - beating Altior that day - and was also runner-up in this race 12 months ago. The track will suit, and he rates the main danger to the selection. The Henry De Bromhead-trained Captain Guinness, who was third in last season’s Arkle, also makes the trip over and is certainly no back number. He returned last month with a solid Grade Three win at Naas and seems to be going the right way over fences. But this will be a big leap up in grade so more improvement will be needed.
3.00 – Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4
14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Aged 7 or older
14/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
14/15 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated 126 or higher
12/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
8/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/15 – Trained by Tom George
1/15 – Winning favourites
Morney Wing (12/1) won this race in 2018
2019 running was declared a void race
TQ VERDICT: Staying is the order of the day here - the two distance winners in the field are Red Infantry and Christmas In April. Strictlyadancer will be popular with a string of wins next to his name. This 7 year-old showed a lot of guts to win for the third time in a row at Haydock last month, but is up another 7lbs here and this longer trip would be the slight worry for me. DEISE ALBA ran a blinder on his return over hurdles last time at Aintree but is back over fences here - has won 33% of his 9 runs over the bigger obstacles. Yes, this longer trip is a bit of an unknown, but what we do know is that he loves it here at Sandown - he’s 2-from-2 here. Larry is another course winner in the field and heads here having won well at Ascot last time out. He’s up 6lbs for that here but can go well too. Salty Boy won the Southern National at Fontwell last time out (3m3f) so staying this 3m5f trip will be fine. He’s up 5lbs for that win, but still gets in here with just 10st 7lbs and can figure too. The Mighty Don ran a cracker at Cheltenham to be second to Yala Enki and off the same mark will have his supporters too, but bit have Niall Houlihan claiming 5lbs that day too - he’s not riding this time. The other pick though is the Paul Nicholls-trained topweight - HIGHLAND HUNTER. Yes, he’s got a lot of weight (11-12), but has carried it well in the past. We know he stays having run a close 5th in the Midlands National last season (4m2f) and has a good record fresh too.
3.35 – Betfair Daily Rewards December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4
16/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/17 – Rated between 116-128
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
Benson (9/2) won this race in 2020
Mack The Man (6/1) won this race in 2019
Man Of Plenty (8/1) won this race in 2018
TQ VERDICT: The Gary Moore yard have two here - Natural History, who is on a bit of a recovery mission and overlooked, and HUDSON DE GRUGY, who was a nice winner over this course and distance last month. He’s up just 4lbs for that win and has now won 3 of his 5 starts over hurdles. At just 4 years-old should also have more to offer. Metier won the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle here well last January but failed to build on that with a poor run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. He’s had a nice break since and could easily bounce back here at a track we know suits. He might want the ground to get softer though - if it does that would help his cause a lot. BENSON took this 12 months ago and looks primed to run well again. Yes, he’s up 8lbs from that win but I feel he’s improved since. He ran Not So Sleepy to 6 ¼ lengths at Ascot last December and returned this term with a fair 5th at Cheltenham over a much longer trip. He got tired that day but will be better for the drop back in distance and with that run blowing away the cobwebs. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls runner - Samarrive - can be expected to leave his last run behind him (7th Cheltenham) and before that had caught the eye winning well at Kempton back in April. Decent staying chaser - Elegant Escape is also back from a long time out (631 days) but you feel this will be a race back over hurdles to get his confidence back with a return to chasing on the cards after.
Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.30 – Unibet Proudly Supports ‘Racing Is Everyone’s Sport’ Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (3Yyo) 2m1f ITV4
Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/8 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Winning distance 8 or more lengths
7/8 – Carried 10-12 in weight
5/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Irish-trained winners
3/8 – Trained by Alan King
2/8 – Trained by Gavin Cromwell
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1
TQ VERDICT: Trainer Gavin Cromwell has targeted this race in recent years - winning it in 2015 and 2017. Therefore, it’s interesting he sends over WHITE PEPPER here and a chance is taken on his 3 year-old filly. She won well at Galway last time out (13 lengths) and even though that form is hard to translate over here, with the yard’s good record in the race, they must clearly feel she’s got a leading chance. Ireland also has the Joseph O’Brien runner - Six Feet Apart - and the John C Connell entry - Calvados to cheer on. The former won on her hurdles debut at Fairyhouse and should go well, while Calvados is one of the more experienced hurdlers with three previous runs. Of the home-trained bunch, Ian Williams has two - Angels Landing and Malakahna - the last-named looks their better chance after a nice win on debut at Fakenham last time. Aliomaana and Sea Sessions are others to note, but the Alan King yard are another that have done well in this race - winning it in 2012, 2014 and 2019, so their KALMA is interesting. Down the field on hurdles debut in the same race Malakahna won, but is didn’t jump well early on that day and is surely better than that.
2.05 – Unibet Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4
9/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had won over at least 3m (chase)
8/9 – Placed favourites (top 3)
8/9 – Ran at Aintree, Wetherby or Cheltenham last time out
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Aged 8 or younger
6/8 – Had run at Aintree in the past
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Irish Bred
5/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/9 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Cook
Native River won this race in 2019
Definitly Red won the race in 2017 and 2018
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
TQ VERDICT: Plenty of familiar faces here, including the two-time Grand National hero - Tiger Roll - who is back in action. Now 11, and soon to be 12, there is talk of another National bid, but having been off the track since running down the field here in the Betfair Bowl in April, you feel he’ll just need this return. We also see the return of the former Gold Cup winner - NATIVE RIVER (e/w) - who won this race in 2019. He’s another older statesman at 11, but the reports are that he’s thriving at home and we know he’s never far away in his races - from 22 runs over fences, he’s only been out of the top three twice! Former Cheltenham Festival winner - IMPERIAL AURA (e/w) - was going okay when falling in the Betfair Chase last time so has to be considered too. He’d not have won that race, with A Plus Tard bolting up, but was still in the process of running well and if none the worse for that tumble can go well. Protektorat will be all the rage too - having run a close second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time with a big weight. Out of handicap company here so more level weights will help and is a proven course winner here too. The slight worry would be the longer trip - he’s only tried this sort of distance once (2m7f) and was well beaten. Simply The Betts has a bit to prove at the moment, while despite in great form winning his last two - CD winner Wishing And Hoping is up again in grade and would need a career-best.
2.40 – Unibet Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4
15/19 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
15/19 – Carried 10-12 or less
15/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/19 – Had no more than 1 start that season
14/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/19 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
13/19 – Aged 9 or older
12/19 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/19 – Officially rated between 123-138
11/19 – Irish-bred winners
11/19 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
11/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
8/19 – Placed favourites
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Irish-trained winners
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/19 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/19 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Vieux Lion Rouge won the race in 2016 and 2020
TQ VERDICT: Over the National-style fences here so always a nice spectacle to enjoy. Last season we saw the 11 year-old VIEUX LION ROUGE (e/w) win the race for a second time and despite being another year older this time, looks to have a big chance again. He’s only got 10-9 to carry and will be fitter for a return run at Chepstow in October. He’s rated 5lbs higher this time than 12 months ago, but let’s not forget he bolted up by 24 lengths that day. Kimberlite Candy was the horse that was runner-up last year and seems to enjoy these fences, so another bold showing is on the cards. The other of interest though off just 10st is the Ben Pauling runner - LE BREUIL (e/w). He was third in this race last year but is rated 5lbs lower this time and will carry 8lbs less in racing weight. A recent run in the Southern National would have helped his fitness after a break and off this mark of 136 is starting to look very well handicapped. Hogan’s Height won the 2019 Grand Sefton over these fences, so the course is fine, but the longer trip here is the slight worry. Sticking with the Grand Sefton, this year’s winner - Mac Tottie will be looking for a famous double in these earlier season races over the National Fences - they were normally run on the same day. This Peter Bowen runner is up 7lbs from that last run and has another 5 furlongs to go this time. He still only has 10-6 to carry though, but you feel he’s not much value in the betting in a race run over a much longer trip. Snow Leopardess likes to race up with the pace so we can expect to see this grey prominent early one. She won well at Bangor last time too and is interesting on debut over these fences. 2021 Scottish National winner Mighty Thunder has to be considered too off a 6lb higher mark, while the Irish challenge is spearheaded by the Henry De Bromhead-trained Chris’s Dream, who is the class act in the race, but as a result has 11-12 to carry - meaning all bar one other runner - Lord Du Mensil - have 11st or less to carry. The final pick though is the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner - CHECKITOUT (e/w). The yard has a top record in this race - winning it three times and most recently in 2017. This 7 year-old was a fair second on his return to Larry at Ascot at the end of October and even though he’s up 4lbs for that, the useful Jordan Nailor is also to claim a handy 3lbs.
3.15 – Unibet - 2021 Horse Race Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4
9/10 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Aged 7 or younger
8/10 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 - Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 - Aged between 5-6 years-old
7/10 - Carried 10-10 or more in weight
7/10 - Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/10 - Won over at least 2m4f before
6/10 - Had run at Aintree before
4/10 - Ran at Aintree (2) or Kempton (2) last time out
3/10 - Winning favourites
3/10 - Won last time out
2/10 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 - Trained by Dan Skelton
Kateson (5/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
TQ VERDICT: Canford Light and Tamar Bridge were both nice winners last time out and are on the shortlist, while the Sandy Thomson-trained Storm Nelson did well last season to win three on the spin. He returns on an 11lb higher mark here but is a hurdler on the up. Winningiseverything and Aurora Thunder are others to respect, but the three I like here are BALLYANDY, HIGHWAY ONE O TWO and last year’s winner - KATESON. Ballyandy needs little introduction - this former winner of the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival has had a to career and despite not getting any younger at 10, is dropping down the ratings - there could be another nice race in him. It’s also interesting that connections put up a 10lb claimer to help with his big weight of 11st 10lbs. s mentioned, Kateson, won this race 12 months ago and is back off the same mark (134). A recent run here would have helped, and you feel a stab at this race again would have been the main target. Finally, Highway One O Two has a bit to prove, but as a result of some average runs has dropped to a fair mark (127). Daryl Jacob is a top jockey booking too and the step up in trip here looks a bit of a gamble, but also an interesting move that could spark him back to life - don’t forget he won the Grade Two Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle back in 2020.
