The ITV horse racing cameras head to Sandown Park this Friday to take in the opening day of their two-day Tingle Creek Festival.
They are showing FOUR races LIVE, that include the Grade Two Ballymore Winter Novices’ Hurdle at 2:25 - a race that's seen 8 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old.
Here at TQ we've got all the key trends that matter - use these to find the best profiles of past winners, plus our free tips on the race.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends(RacingTV/ITV4)
1:50 - Betfair Daily Rewards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m4f ITV4
10/10 - Didn’t win last time out
10/10 - Rated between 119 and 125 (inc)
9/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 - Aged 7 or younger
9/10 - Carried 11st 2lbs or more in weight
8/10 - Had won in the last 6 weeks
7/10 - Irish bred
7/10 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 - Had run at Sandown before (hurdles or chase)
6/10 - Placed favourites
2/10 - 2 winning favourites (one joint)
2/10 - Ran at Sandown last time out
2/10 - Ridden by Daryl Jacob
Trainer Dan Skelton won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 20% record with his chasers here at Sandown, so a chance is taken on their BOTHWELL BRIDGE. This 6 year-old was last seen pulling up at Aintree in the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle but prior to that had caught the eye with easy wins at Warwick and Hereford. He’s had a wind op over the summer and makes his chase debut here today, which has likely always been the plan. He’s also gone well fresh in the past - winning off a break the last twice. Of the rest, the Gary Moore yard won this in 2015 and try again - this time with ZHIGULI (e/w). He was a nice winner on chase debut at Lingfield, but failed to build in that last time, but had an excuse having been hampered four out, while the drop back in trip here to 2m4f should suit - any rain, however, would help. The 8 year-old Champagne Well is the only last time out winner in the field - therefore, has to be respected, but that came over hurdles and is so far 0-from-3 over fences and 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or younger. It goes without saying the Nicholls runner - Halo Des Obeaux will be popular too coming from this leading yard. However, this 4 year-old has failed to win (2 runs) since coming over from France for the stable - both times over hurdles. Yes, he’s likely to improve now chasing, but also comes here having fallen over the smaller obstacles last time out, which isn’t ideal. Bobhopeornohope and Mahler’s Promise have cases too after fair recent runs and should make their presence felt.
2:25 - Ballymore Winter Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4
10/10 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 - Ran in the last 5 weeks
9/10 - Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 - Favourites placed
8/10 - Aged 5 or younger
8/10 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 - Won last time out
6/10 - French bred
4/10 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/10 - Winning favourites
3/10 - Trained by Alan King
2/10 - Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 - Ridden by Wayne Hutchinson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here but they all head here having won last time out and all look very promising novice hurdlers. The Dan Skelton runner - Viva Lavilla - did it well at Lingfield last month, jumping well and has to be considered coming here unbeaten (2-from-2) having won a Point too - the worry would be that the yard are just 1-from-28 (4%) with their hurdlers here at Sandown. Fair Frontieres represents the Kim Bailey yard that boast an impressive 22% strike-rate with their hurdlers here and this 6 year-old won very easily last time at Worcester. More on his plate here but looks a nice prospect. You can’t knock Harper’s Brook’s win at Carlisle last time out either, while the Tom Lacey runner - Lossiemouth - has hit the headlines with smooth wins at Ascot and Ffos Las, but he’s had a 7lb claimer riding him those times so has been heled with his weight. The call though is for the Paul Nicholls yard to take this with BRAVE KINGDOM. This 5 year-old was super-impressive when winning on his hurdles debut at Chepstow last month and looks destined for big things. He made all that day and it was also his first run back from a wind op, which has clearly had a positive impact. Gavin Sheehan, who rode last time, gets the leg-up again.
3:00 - Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 1m7½f ITV4
6 previous runnings
6/6 - Won a race over this trip before
6/6 - Didn’t win last time out
5/6 - Aged 6 or older
5/6 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/6 - Favourites placed in the top three
4/6 - Yet to win a race over fences
4/6 - Carried 11st or more
4/6 - Aged between 7-9 years-old
4/6 - Returned 7/1 or shorter
2/6 - Ran at Aintree last time out
2/6 - Ran at Sandown before
2/6 - Trained by Gary Moore
2/6 - Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/6 - Winning favourites
Darebin won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: The 9 year-old Darebin, who is the only CD winner in the race, took this race 12 months ago - in fact, beating his stablemate - Early Du Lemo - by a neck. It could easily be more of the same again this year, but Darebin is rated 4lbs higher this time and needs to bounce back from a poor run at Kempton last time out. Early Du Lemo gets in here off the same mark as 12 months ago and despite coming here off a 288-day break, did well off a lay-off last year too. The worry is that he’s only one win from 9 runs over fences. You can expect One True King and Fairway Freddie to run well, but both do have a fair bit of weight. The slight drop back in trip will help Out On The Tear here but the two picks are DEMOPOLIS (e/w) and DESQUE DE L’ISLE. The former will need to bounce back from being pulled up at Worcester last time out, but has since had a wind operation. He’s also 3lbs lower here and Sean Houlihan, who has ridden the horse before, is back on to claim 3lbs further. Add in that the Hobbs yard also have a 26% record with their chasers at the track, then this is a further plus. Another stable that does well here are the Venetia Williams camp (21%), so their recent winner - Desque De L’Isle is the other pick. He won last time out at Ffos Las with a bit in-hand so even though the 10lb hike in the handicap looks a bit harsh, we can expect more to come as that run also came off a 276-day break and after a wind op. That success was also his third, from only 7 runs over fences so is building up a nice wins-to-runs profile.
3:35 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m7½f ITV4
10/10 - Aged 8 or younger
8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/10 - Won between 0-3 times over hurdles
8/10 - Didn’t win last time out
8/10 - Irish (5) or French (3) bred
7/10 - Carried 11st or less
6/10 - Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/10 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 - Rated between 130-139 (inc)
6/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 - Placed favourites
6/10 - Yet to win over 3m+
4/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/10 - Winning favourites
3/10 - Had run at Sandown before
2/10 - Trained by Alan King
2/10 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Warren Greatrex won this race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
TQ VERDICT: With all of the last 10 winners aged between 8 or younger, then this would be a negative for the older runners - William Henry and Mulcahys Hill, who represents last year’s winning yard of Warren Greatrex. Copper Coin is going the right way over hurdles (2 wins from 8) but having lost off this higher mark last time will need to find a bit more - on a plus, is ridden by Sean Bowen, who has a 31% record riding over hurdles here. Pileon ran well on his return last time at Aintree and should be a lot fitter here too - he can go well off a light weight. Sean Houlihan is another jockey that has a good record at the track over hurdles (31%) - he rides Tidal Flow, who sports the first-time blinkers. The Cob won the River Don Grade Two Hurdle at Doncaster back in January, but was well back in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival last time. The plus is that he’s had a nice break and has gone well fresh in the past. Al Dancer looks on a fair mark back over hurdles, but, for me, is a horse that has a bit to prove after three poor runs over fences. So, the picks are STONER’S CHOICE and STORM ARISING. The former hails from the Fergal O’Brien yard that have a 19% record with their hurdlers here and he’ll be a lot sharper for his return run at Kempton last month (3rd). He still ran a decent race that day and heads here having won 50% of his 8 runs over hurdles. Storm Arising rose up the ranks last season with wins at Lingfield and Chepstow, and even though a trip to the Festival in the Pertemps Final Network Hurdle was too much, he’s back from a break and returns only 3lbs higher than his last win. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time and this is a race the Nicholls yard have done well in before - winning to pot in 2013 and 2011.
